Statistics

knox · Kickflip Joined: 14 Jun 2007 Posts: 4693 City: Gainesville

Don't trust them. Just kind of a spin off of the jail thread, you have to take all statistics in under scrutiny. In a case, a lawyer defending a doctor explained that due to the patient's habits, that person had tripled their risk for heart disease. A powerful fact, which could or could not have influenced the jury. The prosecuting lawyer asked what the risk a normal person had of contracting heart disease. The reply was 1 in a 1000. So what that means is that this person had a 3 in a 1000 chance of getting heart disease. An increase of .2%. Not exactly a huge increase, but the way it was worded made it seem like a much bigger difference than it actually was.

Wording is everything.

Classy · Posted: Feb 12, 2010 9:10 pm Post subject:

yes sir!

mufinman98 · Posted: Feb 12, 2010 9:55 pm Post subject:

last week our statistics teacher addmitted to us that all were doing is lying..
in our problems all we do is say that we can reject or fail to reject the hypotheses, but we can never say anything is true or accepted. its all gay

-=AlexXx=- · Posted: Feb 12, 2010 11:38 pm Post subject:

86.7% of statistics are made up on the spot. Wink

kyle41 · Posted: Feb 13, 2010 1:58 am Post subject:

-=AlexXx=- but can you be trusted.........

-=AlexXx=- · Posted: Feb 13, 2010 12:03 pm Post subject:

You can trust me 60% of the time every time.

nopulseimpulse · Posted: Feb 13, 2010 2:29 pm Post subject:

good post.

nick · Posted: Feb 13, 2010 7:43 pm Post subject:

Trust me on this one...

winch4fun · Posted: Feb 13, 2010 8:21 pm Post subject:

nick, this could be 50-50 though. who is to say that chart isnt mrs. pacman

burn · Posted: Feb 13, 2010 8:27 pm Post subject:

winch4fun, if it is mrs. pacman, where is the bow? Laughing

mojo · Posted: Feb 13, 2010 9:38 pm Post subject:

when it comes to the law, money talks. i got arrested for something that requires a minimum mandatory sentence of 3-5 years. my wonderful lawyer got me off with a very small fine and 3 months good behavior. by the way it was a non violent offense involving gardening. also, what are the stats on the dead guy? i'm guessing over weight, full of clogged arteries, and not aware somehow of his or her death defying lifestyle.

Classy · Posted: Feb 13, 2010 10:09 pm Post subject:

mojo, Gardening huh?

mojo · Posted: Feb 13, 2010 10:36 pm Post subject:

ya, who would have thought having weeds in your garden wasn't allowed

burn · Posted: Feb 13, 2010 10:44 pm Post subject:

what kind pesky plants are you talking about? Rolling Eyes

mojo · Posted: Feb 13, 2010 10:50 pm Post subject:

nick, speaking of stats, what are the new stats vs. old tnt stats? obviously the board is a tech machine in either size, but how is the new shape top/bottom? and why only 3 plys of bamboo vs. 9 plays of birch?

fastgreens · Kickflip Joined: 29 Dec 2007 Posts: 3563 City: baytown

knox · Kickflip Joined: 14 Jun 2007 Posts: 4693 City: Gainesville

fastgreens, true. That's still .003 as opposed to .001. "Triple the risk" or "A .2% increase in risk," they both mean the same thing in this situation, but which sounds like more? 1 in 333.333 sounds like more than 3 in a 1000, but again it's all in the wording.

knox · Kickflip Joined: 14 Jun 2007 Posts: 4693 City: Gainesville

fastgreens, We really can't either be wrong or right, which is the beauty of the deception of statistics. As far as what is significant or not, that's opinion. The lawyer in this case probably convinced the jury that this fact was not significant. If the defending lawyer had said what you said, maybe the jury would have sided with him on its signifigance. It's all about wording, what I said made it seem like a very small increase, what you said made it seem like a very big increase. Manipulation, muwahaha.

fastgreens · Kickflip Joined: 29 Dec 2007 Posts: 3563 City: baytown

The Kid, you sir are correct... its all about wording!

kyle · Posted: Feb 15, 2010 7:32 pm Post subject:

Non invasive breast cancer with surgery and radiation have a 97% success rate of not recurring. When you goto an oncologist he will tell you that if you also get chemo, your odds increase 30% of the cancer not recurring. The number sounds amazing but all it really does is turn the 97% to 98%, 30% of 3%.